Baseline: Brent Crude $70.00/bbl (Feb 27, 2026 close — last trading day before Operation Epic Fury).
Gas price model: Historically, every $10 increase in crude adds ~$0.15-0.20 to retail gasoline price with a 1-2 week lag. Current estimate uses $0.154/gal per $10 crude increase.
Diesel model: Diesel typically moves 10-15% more than gasoline on crude increases due to refining margins and commercial demand inelasticity. Uses $0.176/gal per $10.
Jet fuel: Tracks roughly 1:1 with gasoline retail movement but wholesale.
Grocery impact: USDA estimates food prices increase 0.5-1.0% for every 10% rise in oil prices, with a 2-6 week lag. Transport costs represent ~3.5% of food retail price.
Shipping: Includes Hormuz reroute premium (Cape of Good Hope adds 10-15 days) plus bunker fuel surcharges.
Household cost: Based on EIA average household consumption of 90 gallons gasoline/month, 30% food budget sensitivity, and regional heating oil where applicable.
Note: All figures are estimates based on historical relationships. Actual impacts vary by region, household size, and consumption patterns. Update the crude price with latest market data for real-time estimates.
Sources: EIA, AAA, USDA ERS, Freightos Baltic Index, ICE Brent Futures